**Strong scientific consensus supports the market's dominant 85–90 outcome (95.3% implied probability) for the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate through Week 25, 2026.** CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 22 (ending June 6) already show a cumulative rate of 87.5 per 100,000 population, with weekly rates at just 0.1 per 100,000 as seasonal influenza activity has declined sharply. By mid-to-late June, off-season transmission typically remains minimal, producing negligible additional hospitalizations and keeping the cumulative total within the narrow 85–90 band. This positioning aligns with historical patterns: influenza activity outside the October–May window is low, and 2025–2026 cumulative rates through spring already ranked among the higher seasons since 2010–11 without evidence of unusual summer persistence. Key upcoming data releases from CDC FluView (Week 23–25 reports) will confirm the final tally, but current surveillance indicators—including low outpatient visits and laboratory detections—reinforce trader expectations of little movement. Realistic challenges to the 85–90 range would require an atypical summer wave or major revisions in reporting, both uncommon given stable model consensus and routine surveillance trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 25, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 25, 2026?
85–90 95.2%
<80 3.4%
95–100 2.8%
80–85 2.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 juil. 2026
<80
3%
80–85
2%
85–90
95%
90–95
1%
95–100
3%
100+
1%
85–90 95.2%
<80 3.4%
95–100 2.8%
80–85 2.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 juil. 2026
<80
$125 Vol.
3%
80–85
$125 Vol.
2%
85–90
$635 Vol.
95%
90–95
$125 Vol.
1%
95–100
$125 Vol.
3%
100+
$125 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Strong scientific consensus supports the market's dominant 85–90 outcome (95.3% implied probability) for the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate through Week 25, 2026.** CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 22 (ending June 6) already show a cumulative rate of 87.5 per 100,000 population, with weekly rates at just 0.1 per 100,000 as seasonal influenza activity has declined sharply. By mid-to-late June, off-season transmission typically remains minimal, producing negligible additional hospitalizations and keeping the cumulative total within the narrow 85–90 band.
This positioning aligns with historical patterns: influenza activity outside the October–May window is low, and 2025–2026 cumulative rates through spring already ranked among the higher seasons since 2010–11 without evidence of unusual summer persistence. Key upcoming data releases from CDC FluView (Week 23–25 reports) will confirm the final tally, but current surveillance indicators—including low outpatient visits and laboratory detections—reinforce trader expectations of little movement.
Realistic challenges to the 85–90 range would require an atypical summer wave or major revisions in reporting, both uncommon given stable model consensus and routine surveillance trends.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,260Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Strong scientific consensus supports the market's dominant 85–90 outcome (95.3% implied probability) for the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate through Week 25, 2026.** CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 22 (ending June 6) already show a cumulative rate of 87.5 per 100,000 population, with weekly rates at just 0.1 per 100,000 as seasonal influenza activity has declined sharply. By mid-to-late June, off-season transmission typically remains minimal, producing negligible additional hospitalizations and keeping the cumulative total within the narrow 85–90 band.
This positioning aligns with historical patterns: influenza activity outside the October–May window is low, and 2025–2026 cumulative rates through spring already ranked among the higher seasons since 2010–11 without evidence of unusual summer persistence. Key upcoming data releases from CDC FluView (Week 23–25 reports) will confirm the final tally, but current surveillance indicators—including low outpatient visits and laboratory detections—reinforce trader expectations of little movement.
Realistic challenges to the 85–90 range would require an atypical summer wave or major revisions in reporting, both uncommon given stable model consensus and routine surveillance trends.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$1,260Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong scientific consensus supports the market's dominant 85–90 outcome (95.3% implied probability) for the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate through Week 25, 2026.** CDC FluSurv-NET data through Week 22 (ending June 6) already show a cumulative rate of 87.5 per 100,000 population, with weekly rates at just 0.1 per 100,000 as seasonal influenza activity has declined sharply. By mid-to-late June, off-season transmission typically remains minimal, producing negligible additional hospitalizations and keeping the cumulative total within the narrow 85–90 band. This positioning aligns with historical patterns: influenza activity outside the October–May window is low, and 2025–2026 cumulative rates through spring already ranked among the higher seasons since 2010–11 without evidence of unusual summer persistence. Key upcoming data releases from CDC FluView (Week 23–25 reports) will confirm the final tally, but current surveillance indicators—including low outpatient visits and laboratory detections—reinforce trader expectations of little movement. Realistic challenges to the 85–90 range would require an atypical summer wave or major revisions in reporting, both uncommon given stable model consensus and routine surveillance trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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