El Niño conditions, now established and forecast to strengthen through 2026, represent the dominant influence on July tornado probabilities by altering the jet stream and reducing moisture transport and shear across the traditional Plains corridor. This setup favors below-average activity in the 100–129 range or lower, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes near 40 percent each, as historical analogs show suppressed summer counts during developing warm ENSO phases. Key variables include Gulf moisture availability, the position of the subtropical ridge, and mid-level lapse rates that determine convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm organization; stronger El Niño impacts could push totals under 100 if steering patterns limit discrete supercells, while neutral or weaker signals might allow 130–159 events if northern Plains fronts align with residual instability. SPC seasonal guidance and model consensus on ENSO evolution will provide the next major updates ahead of July resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de tornades aux États-Unis en juillet ?
Combien de tornades aux États-Unis en juillet ?
<100 41%
100–129 37%
280–310 25%
160–189 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<100
41%
100–129
37%
130–159
24%
160–189
25%
190–219
25%
220–249
23%
250–279
21%
280–310
24%
310+
24%
<100 41%
100–129 37%
280–310 25%
160–189 25%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
<100
$30 Vol.
41%
100–129
$44 Vol.
37%
130–159
$78 Vol.
24%
160–189
$40 Vol.
25%
190–219
$41 Vol.
25%
220–249
$33 Vol.
23%
250–279
$53 Vol.
21%
280–310
$131 Vol.
24%
310+
$40 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now established and forecast to strengthen through 2026, represent the dominant influence on July tornado probabilities by altering the jet stream and reducing moisture transport and shear across the traditional Plains corridor. This setup favors below-average activity in the 100–129 range or lower, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes near 40 percent each, as historical analogs show suppressed summer counts during developing warm ENSO phases. Key variables include Gulf moisture availability, the position of the subtropical ridge, and mid-level lapse rates that determine convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm organization; stronger El Niño impacts could push totals under 100 if steering patterns limit discrete supercells, while neutral or weaker signals might allow 130–159 events if northern Plains fronts align with residual instability. SPC seasonal guidance and model consensus on ENSO evolution will provide the next major updates ahead of July resolution criteria.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$489Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now established and forecast to strengthen through 2026, represent the dominant influence on July tornado probabilities by altering the jet stream and reducing moisture transport and shear across the traditional Plains corridor. This setup favors below-average activity in the 100–129 range or lower, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes near 40 percent each, as historical analogs show suppressed summer counts during developing warm ENSO phases. Key variables include Gulf moisture availability, the position of the subtropical ridge, and mid-level lapse rates that determine convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm organization; stronger El Niño impacts could push totals under 100 if steering patterns limit discrete supercells, while neutral or weaker signals might allow 130–159 events if northern Plains fronts align with residual instability. SPC seasonal guidance and model consensus on ENSO evolution will provide the next major updates ahead of July resolution criteria.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$489Date de fin
1 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now established and forecast to strengthen through 2026, represent the dominant influence on July tornado probabilities by altering the jet stream and reducing moisture transport and shear across the traditional Plains corridor. This setup favors below-average activity in the 100–129 range or lower, consistent with the market’s leading outcomes near 40 percent each, as historical analogs show suppressed summer counts during developing warm ENSO phases. Key variables include Gulf moisture availability, the position of the subtropical ridge, and mid-level lapse rates that determine convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm organization; stronger El Niño impacts could push totals under 100 if steering patterns limit discrete supercells, while neutral or weaker signals might allow 130–159 events if northern Plains fronts align with residual instability. SPC seasonal guidance and model consensus on ENSO evolution will provide the next major updates ahead of July resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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