Ongoing flank eruptions at Mount Etna, including the January 2026 fissure vent in Valle del Bove that produced sustained lava flows and ash plumes, combined with persistent Strombolian explosions and elevated sulfur dioxide emissions tracked by Italy’s INGV through mid-May, form the core driver behind the near-even 51% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. Historical patterns show Etna averaging several VEI 2–3 episodes per decade, yet key uncertainties remain around whether current deep-magma recharge will sustain explosive phases meeting the VEI 2 threshold of 0.01–0.1 km³ ejecta or shift to lower-intensity effusion. Recent seismic swarms and April 2026 studies confirming pressurization add support for continued activity, while upcoming INGV bulletins, real-time deformation data, and any shifts in ash plume height could rapidly tilt trader consensus before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ongoing flank eruptions at Mount Etna, including the January 2026 fissure vent in Valle del Bove that produced sustained lava flows and ash plumes, combined with persistent Strombolian explosions and elevated sulfur dioxide emissions tracked by Italy’s INGV through mid-May, form the core driver behind the near-even 51% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. Historical patterns show Etna averaging several VEI 2–3 episodes per decade, yet key uncertainties remain around whether current deep-magma recharge will sustain explosive phases meeting the VEI 2 threshold of 0.01–0.1 km³ ejecta or shift to lower-intensity effusion. Recent seismic swarms and April 2026 studies confirming pressurization add support for continued activity, while upcoming INGV bulletins, real-time deformation data, and any shifts in ash plume height could rapidly tilt trader consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Marché ouvert : Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$16Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ongoing flank eruptions at Mount Etna, including the January 2026 fissure vent in Valle del Bove that produced sustained lava flows and ash plumes, combined with persistent Strombolian explosions and elevated sulfur dioxide emissions tracked by Italy’s INGV through mid-May, form the core driver behind the near-even 51% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. Historical patterns show Etna averaging several VEI 2–3 episodes per decade, yet key uncertainties remain around whether current deep-magma recharge will sustain explosive phases meeting the VEI 2 threshold of 0.01–0.1 km³ ejecta or shift to lower-intensity effusion. Recent seismic swarms and April 2026 studies confirming pressurization add support for continued activity, while upcoming INGV bulletins, real-time deformation data, and any shifts in ash plume height could rapidly tilt trader consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$16Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing flank eruptions at Mount Etna, including the January 2026 fissure vent in Valle del Bove that produced sustained lava flows and ash plumes, combined with persistent Strombolian explosions and elevated sulfur dioxide emissions tracked by Italy’s INGV through mid-May, form the core driver behind the near-even 51% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event this year. Historical patterns show Etna averaging several VEI 2–3 episodes per decade, yet key uncertainties remain around whether current deep-magma recharge will sustain explosive phases meeting the VEI 2 threshold of 0.01–0.1 km³ ejecta or shift to lower-intensity effusion. Recent seismic swarms and April 2026 studies confirming pressurization add support for continued activity, while upcoming INGV bulletins, real-time deformation data, and any shifts in ash plume height could rapidly tilt trader consensus before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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