Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, reinforced by Western sanctions on Russian energy exports and EU efforts to end dependence on pipeline gas by 2027, remain the dominant driver behind the 97.5% trader consensus against reactivation before the deadline. The 2022 sabotage damaged three of four Nord Stream lines, with only preservation work—such as Danish-approved sealing in 2025—completed to mitigate environmental risks rather than enable flow. Germany and EU members have prioritized LNG diversification and renewables, while legal and certification hurdles persist. Realistic shifts could stem from a comprehensive peace agreement easing sanctions, accelerated repairs under new bilateral deals, or rapid policy reversals in Berlin, though these face steep procedural and political obstacles within the short remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$151,561 Vol.
$151,561 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, reinforced by Western sanctions on Russian energy exports and EU efforts to end dependence on pipeline gas by 2027, remain the dominant driver behind the 97.5% trader consensus against reactivation before the deadline. The 2022 sabotage damaged three of four Nord Stream lines, with only preservation work—such as Danish-approved sealing in 2025—completed to mitigate environmental risks rather than enable flow. Germany and EU members have prioritized LNG diversification and renewables, while legal and certification hurdles persist. Realistic shifts could stem from a comprehensive peace agreement easing sanctions, accelerated repairs under new bilateral deals, or rapid policy reversals in Berlin, though these face steep procedural and political obstacles within the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$151,561Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, reinforced by Western sanctions on Russian energy exports and EU efforts to end dependence on pipeline gas by 2027, remain the dominant driver behind the 97.5% trader consensus against reactivation before the deadline. The 2022 sabotage damaged three of four Nord Stream lines, with only preservation work—such as Danish-approved sealing in 2025—completed to mitigate environmental risks rather than enable flow. Germany and EU members have prioritized LNG diversification and renewables, while legal and certification hurdles persist. Realistic shifts could stem from a comprehensive peace agreement easing sanctions, accelerated repairs under new bilateral deals, or rapid policy reversals in Berlin, though these face steep procedural and political obstacles within the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,561Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions, reinforced by Western sanctions on Russian energy exports and EU efforts to end dependence on pipeline gas by 2027, remain the dominant driver behind the 97.5% trader consensus against reactivation before the deadline. The 2022 sabotage damaged three of four Nord Stream lines, with only preservation work—such as Danish-approved sealing in 2025—completed to mitigate environmental risks rather than enable flow. Germany and EU members have prioritized LNG diversification and renewables, while legal and certification hurdles persist. Realistic shifts could stem from a comprehensive peace agreement easing sanctions, accelerated repairs under new bilateral deals, or rapid policy reversals in Berlin, though these face steep procedural and political obstacles within the short remaining window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes