US-Panama diplomatic and security cooperation has addressed concerns over Chinese commercial influence at canal ports through the 2025-2026 transfer of terminal operations to a BlackRock-led Western consortium and expanded joint exercises such as PANAMAX 2026. The Trump administration has pursued neutrality treaty compliance, fee adjustments for US vessels, and troop access agreements without permanent bases or sovereignty changes, while Panama has consistently rejected any transfer of control. These developments reflect a pattern of negotiated access and influence reduction rather than unilateral reclamation. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign 96.1% probability to “No” because no military or legal pathway to full US operational takeover has materialized. Late shifts could still arise from an unforeseen neutrality breach, major geopolitical crisis, or abrupt policy reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$166,000 Vol.
$166,000 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$166,000 Vol.
$166,000 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.US-Panama diplomatic and security cooperation has addressed concerns over Chinese commercial influence at canal ports through the 2025-2026 transfer of terminal operations to a BlackRock-led Western consortium and expanded joint exercises such as PANAMAX 2026. The Trump administration has pursued neutrality treaty compliance, fee adjustments for US vessels, and troop access agreements without permanent bases or sovereignty changes, while Panama has consistently rejected any transfer of control. These developments reflect a pattern of negotiated access and influence reduction rather than unilateral reclamation. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign 96.1% probability to “No” because no military or legal pathway to full US operational takeover has materialized. Late shifts could still arise from an unforeseen neutrality breach, major geopolitical crisis, or abrupt policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
Volume
$166,000Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.US-Panama diplomatic and security cooperation has addressed concerns over Chinese commercial influence at canal ports through the 2025-2026 transfer of terminal operations to a BlackRock-led Western consortium and expanded joint exercises such as PANAMAX 2026. The Trump administration has pursued neutrality treaty compliance, fee adjustments for US vessels, and troop access agreements without permanent bases or sovereignty changes, while Panama has consistently rejected any transfer of control. These developments reflect a pattern of negotiated access and influence reduction rather than unilateral reclamation. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign 96.1% probability to “No” because no military or legal pathway to full US operational takeover has materialized. Late shifts could still arise from an unforeseen neutrality breach, major geopolitical crisis, or abrupt policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$166,000Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Panama diplomatic and security cooperation has addressed concerns over Chinese commercial influence at canal ports through the 2025-2026 transfer of terminal operations to a BlackRock-led Western consortium and expanded joint exercises such as PANAMAX 2026. The Trump administration has pursued neutrality treaty compliance, fee adjustments for US vessels, and troop access agreements without permanent bases or sovereignty changes, while Panama has consistently rejected any transfer of control. These developments reflect a pattern of negotiated access and influence reduction rather than unilateral reclamation. With roughly four months remaining before 2027, traders assign 96.1% probability to “No” because no military or legal pathway to full US operational takeover has materialized. Late shifts could still arise from an unforeseen neutrality breach, major geopolitical crisis, or abrupt policy reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes