Traders view Starmer and Petro as the leading contenders in this market because both face near-term political pressures that could force them from office before 2027. Starmer’s UK government confronts economic headwinds, low approval ratings, and potential confidence votes that historically prompt early leadership transitions or snap elections. Petro in Colombia navigates coalition fragility ahead of the 2026 presidential vote, where defeat or institutional shifts could end his term on schedule. The close 38.0 percent to 34.5 percent spread reflects these competing risks, with upcoming legislative sessions, polling movements, or diplomatic developments able to widen or narrow the gap among the broader field of lower-probability leaders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourStarmer - UK PM 38%
Petro - Colombia President 33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.8%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%
$354,890 Vol.
$354,890 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Starmer - UK PM
38%
Petro - Colombia President
33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
9%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
1%
Lecornu - France PM
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
1%
None before 2027
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
1%
Putin - Russia President
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Starmer - UK PM 38%
Petro - Colombia President 33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.8%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.0%
$354,890 Vol.
$354,890 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Starmer - UK PM
$18,949 Vol.
38%
Petro - Colombia President
$18,163 Vol.
33%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$11,802 Vol.
9%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$13,491 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$15,766 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$16,648 Vol.
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$15,936 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$18,804 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$18,845 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$10,499 Vol.
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$15,186 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$19,663 Vol.
<1%
Trump - USA President
$10,315 Vol.
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$12,528 Vol.
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$11,670 Vol.
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$15,495 Vol.
<1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$17,201 Vol.
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$11,255 Vol.
<1%
Macron - France President
$11,830 Vol.
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$14,338 Vol.
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
$18,184 Vol.
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
$12,324 Vol.
<1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$12,150 Vol.
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$13,850 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders view Starmer and Petro as the leading contenders in this market because both face near-term political pressures that could force them from office before 2027. Starmer’s UK government confronts economic headwinds, low approval ratings, and potential confidence votes that historically prompt early leadership transitions or snap elections. Petro in Colombia navigates coalition fragility ahead of the 2026 presidential vote, where defeat or institutional shifts could end his term on schedule. The close 38.0 percent to 34.5 percent spread reflects these competing risks, with upcoming legislative sessions, polling movements, or diplomatic developments able to widen or narrow the gap among the broader field of lower-probability leaders.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$354,890Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders view Starmer and Petro as the leading contenders in this market because both face near-term political pressures that could force them from office before 2027. Starmer’s UK government confronts economic headwinds, low approval ratings, and potential confidence votes that historically prompt early leadership transitions or snap elections. Petro in Colombia navigates coalition fragility ahead of the 2026 presidential vote, where defeat or institutional shifts could end his term on schedule. The close 38.0 percent to 34.5 percent spread reflects these competing risks, with upcoming legislative sessions, polling movements, or diplomatic developments able to widen or narrow the gap among the broader field of lower-probability leaders.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$354,890Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view Starmer and Petro as the leading contenders in this market because both face near-term political pressures that could force them from office before 2027. Starmer’s UK government confronts economic headwinds, low approval ratings, and potential confidence votes that historically prompt early leadership transitions or snap elections. Petro in Colombia navigates coalition fragility ahead of the 2026 presidential vote, where defeat or institutional shifts could end his term on schedule. The close 38.0 percent to 34.5 percent spread reflects these competing risks, with upcoming legislative sessions, polling movements, or diplomatic developments able to widen or narrow the gap among the broader field of lower-probability leaders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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