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icon for California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Elections·California Midterm

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

icon for California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Elections·California Midterm

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

50% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
50% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside three opposing ballot measures funded by approximately $35 million from Bay Area billionaires aimed at blocking or diluting the levy. The wealth tax initiative qualified for the November 2026 ballot in June after collecting sufficient signatures, with revenue directed primarily to healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. Early polling showed narrow support around 52-54%, while legal analyses highlight vulnerabilities in residency rules and potential constitutional challenges. Competing campaigns, concerns over taxpayer relocation, and the simultaneous counter-propositions create balanced trader assessments of whether the tax measure prevails intact. Scheduled voter decisions on November 3 and any post-election litigation could shift outcomes.

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.

Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.

Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.



If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.

If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.

If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.

If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.

If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside three opposing ballot measures funded by approximately $35 million from Bay Area billionaires aimed at blocking or diluting the levy. The wealth tax initiative qualified for the November 2026 ballot in June after collecting sufficient signatures, with revenue directed primarily to healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. Early polling showed narrow support around 52-54%, while legal analyses highlight vulnerabilities in residency rules and potential constitutional challenges. Competing campaigns, concerns over taxpayer relocation, and the simultaneous counter-propositions create balanced trader assessments of whether the tax measure prevails intact. Scheduled voter decisions on November 3 and any post-election litigation could shift outcomes.

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026.

Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property.

Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.



If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market.

If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".

The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution.

If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot.

If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market.

If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$0
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

 If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Questions fréquentes

« California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 50% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 50¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 1, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? » est de 50% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 50% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

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