The Iranian regime's survival through sustained U.S.-Israeli military pressure, leadership transition after Ali Khamenei's death, and ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues has reinforced trader expectations that it will not collapse by late September. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC veterans and hardline security figures by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei signal consolidated military control, continued repression, and readiness for prolonged confrontation rather than internal fracture. Economic strain and earlier protests have not produced nationwide mobilization or elite defections capable of toppling the system in the narrow window ahead. While trader consensus reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and institutional continuity, abrupt escalation, leadership losses, or a coordinated internal uprising could still shift probabilities if they materialize before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Oui
1% chance
$1,708,210 Vol.
$1,708,210 Vol.
29 sept. 2026
Oui
1% chance
$1,708,210 Vol.
$1,708,210 Vol.
29 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through sustained U.S.-Israeli military pressure, leadership transition after Ali Khamenei's death, and ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues has reinforced trader expectations that it will not collapse by late September. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC veterans and hardline security figures by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei signal consolidated military control, continued repression, and readiness for prolonged confrontation rather than internal fracture. Economic strain and earlier protests have not produced nationwide mobilization or elite defections capable of toppling the system in the narrow window ahead. While trader consensus reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and institutional continuity, abrupt escalation, leadership losses, or a coordinated internal uprising could still shift probabilities if they materialize before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$1,708,210Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through sustained U.S.-Israeli military pressure, leadership transition after Ali Khamenei's death, and ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues has reinforced trader expectations that it will not collapse by late September. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC veterans and hardline security figures by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei signal consolidated military control, continued repression, and readiness for prolonged confrontation rather than internal fracture. Economic strain and earlier protests have not produced nationwide mobilization or elite defections capable of toppling the system in the narrow window ahead. While trader consensus reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and institutional continuity, abrupt escalation, leadership losses, or a coordinated internal uprising could still shift probabilities if they materialize before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,708,210Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through sustained U.S.-Israeli military pressure, leadership transition after Ali Khamenei's death, and ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues has reinforced trader expectations that it will not collapse by late September. Recent August 2026 appointments of IRGC veterans and hardline security figures by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei signal consolidated military control, continued repression, and readiness for prolonged confrontation rather than internal fracture. Economic strain and earlier protests have not produced nationwide mobilization or elite defections capable of toppling the system in the narrow window ahead. While trader consensus reflects the regime's demonstrated resilience and institutional continuity, abrupt escalation, leadership losses, or a coordinated internal uprising could still shift probabilities if they materialize before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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