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Geopolitics·Kim Jong Un

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026?

icon for Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026?
Geopolitics·Kim Jong Un

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026?

juin 30

juil. 31

juin 30

juil. 31

3+ 46%

1 43%

<1 40%

2 39%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

3+ 46%

1 43%

<1 40%

2 39%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

<1

$0 Vol.

40%

1

$23 Vol.

43%

2

$0 Vol.

39%

3+

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's ongoing military modernization drive and periodic tests to showcase upgraded systems underpin trader expectations for one to three missile launches in July 2026. Recent activity includes Kim Jong Un's oversight of ballistic missile warhead and multiple rocket launcher tests on June 25, following earlier 2026 launches of tactical systems and cruise missiles that align with Pyongyang's five-year artillery and missile plan. These developments, timed near the Korean War anniversary and amid border tensions with South Korea, reflect a pattern of intermittent but sustained testing to enhance precision strike and deterrence capabilities. Market pricing for one test as the top outcome at 57.5 percent captures the likelihood of measured activity, while 3+ at 46.5 percent and two at 44 percent reflect uncertainty over whether exercises or external factors will prompt additional launches in the coming month.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.

Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$23
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea's ongoing military modernization drive and periodic tests to showcase upgraded systems underpin trader expectations for one to three missile launches in July 2026. Recent activity includes Kim Jong Un's oversight of ballistic missile warhead and multiple rocket launcher tests on June 25, following earlier 2026 launches of tactical systems and cruise missiles that align with Pyongyang's five-year artillery and missile plan. These developments, timed near the Korean War anniversary and amid border tensions with South Korea, reflect a pattern of intermittent but sustained testing to enhance precision strike and deterrence capabilities. Market pricing for one test as the top outcome at 57.5 percent captures the likelihood of measured activity, while 3+ at 46.5 percent and two at 44 percent reflect uncertainty over whether exercises or external factors will prompt additional launches in the coming month.

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time.

If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.

Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.

Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.

Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$23
Date de fin
31 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 11:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during July 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

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Questions fréquentes

« Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 3+ » à 46%, suivi de « 1 » à 43%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 46¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 46% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jun 29, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026? » est « 3+ » à 46%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 46% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1 » à 43%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Number of North Korea Missile Tests in July 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.