Ongoing indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar remain the central factor shaping prospects for any sustained US-Iran ceasefire, as both sides review draft proposals aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the naval blockade, releasing frozen assets, and lifting oil sanctions. Recent US defensive strikes on Iranian targets near the strait on November 2–3 followed Iranian missile activity and prompted Tehran to describe Washington’s response as unconvincing while reiterating its core demands. President Trump has signaled continued talks without immediate plans for broader strikes, citing ongoing discussions ahead of the November 5 midterms, though Iranian officials view a return to hostilities as increasingly likely. These dynamics, alongside historical patterns of short-lived agreements like the expired June memorandum, highlight the fragile balance between diplomatic momentum and persistent military posturing that traders are assessing.