Recent U.S.-Iran talks have advanced a preliminary memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and schedule further nuclear discussions, yet core disputes over uranium enrichment limits remain unresolved. Washington seeks a 20-year moratorium with snap inspections, while Tehran has proposed at most five years, and neither side has addressed Iran's existing near-weapons-grade stockpile. With only two weeks until the May 31 deadline, these gaps have kept comprehensive agreement prospects low. Traders assign a 90.5% probability to no deal by that date, reflecting the limited scope of current proposals and historical patterns of protracted negotiations on verification and sanctions relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUS-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
$655,915 Vol.
$655,915 Vol.
31 mai 2026
$655,915 Vol.
$655,915 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-Iran talks have advanced a preliminary memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and schedule further nuclear discussions, yet core disputes over uranium enrichment limits remain unresolved. Washington seeks a 20-year moratorium with snap inspections, while Tehran has proposed at most five years, and neither side has addressed Iran's existing near-weapons-grade stockpile. With only two weeks until the May 31 deadline, these gaps have kept comprehensive agreement prospects low. Traders assign a 90.5% probability to no deal by that date, reflecting the limited scope of current proposals and historical patterns of protracted negotiations on verification and sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$655,915Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-Iran talks have advanced a preliminary memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and schedule further nuclear discussions, yet core disputes over uranium enrichment limits remain unresolved. Washington seeks a 20-year moratorium with snap inspections, while Tehran has proposed at most five years, and neither side has addressed Iran's existing near-weapons-grade stockpile. With only two weeks until the May 31 deadline, these gaps have kept comprehensive agreement prospects low. Traders assign a 90.5% probability to no deal by that date, reflecting the limited scope of current proposals and historical patterns of protracted negotiations on verification and sanctions relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$655,915Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran talks have advanced a preliminary memorandum to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and schedule further nuclear discussions, yet core disputes over uranium enrichment limits remain unresolved. Washington seeks a 20-year moratorium with snap inspections, while Tehran has proposed at most five years, and neither side has addressed Iran's existing near-weapons-grade stockpile. With only two weeks until the May 31 deadline, these gaps have kept comprehensive agreement prospects low. Traders assign a 90.5% probability to no deal by that date, reflecting the limited scope of current proposals and historical patterns of protracted negotiations on verification and sanctions relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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