Trump’s second term has featured strong alignment between the president, Vice President JD Vance, and a Republican Cabinet, creating a high procedural barrier under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Invocation requires the vice president plus a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds majorities in both chambers of a GOP-controlled Congress—an outcome viewed by traders as politically unrealistic absent broad Republican defections. Democratic calls for removal during the 2026 Iran conflict produced only non-binding resolutions and a failed commission bill, with no supporting action from Trump allies. Trump’s May 2026 physical exam reported excellent cardiac, neurological, and cognitive results, reinforcing perceptions of fitness. While a sudden incapacitating health event or dramatic erosion of Cabinet loyalty could theoretically alter the trajectory before 2027, current institutional and partisan dynamics sustain the overwhelming trader consensus against removal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
4% chance
$49,857 Vol.
$49,857 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$49,857 Vol.
$49,857 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Trump’s second term has featured strong alignment between the president, Vice President JD Vance, and a Republican Cabinet, creating a high procedural barrier under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Invocation requires the vice president plus a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds majorities in both chambers of a GOP-controlled Congress—an outcome viewed by traders as politically unrealistic absent broad Republican defections. Democratic calls for removal during the 2026 Iran conflict produced only non-binding resolutions and a failed commission bill, with no supporting action from Trump allies. Trump’s May 2026 physical exam reported excellent cardiac, neurological, and cognitive results, reinforcing perceptions of fitness. While a sudden incapacitating health event or dramatic erosion of Cabinet loyalty could theoretically alter the trajectory before 2027, current institutional and partisan dynamics sustain the overwhelming trader consensus against removal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volume
$49,857Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Trump’s second term has featured strong alignment between the president, Vice President JD Vance, and a Republican Cabinet, creating a high procedural barrier under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Invocation requires the vice president plus a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds majorities in both chambers of a GOP-controlled Congress—an outcome viewed by traders as politically unrealistic absent broad Republican defections. Democratic calls for removal during the 2026 Iran conflict produced only non-binding resolutions and a failed commission bill, with no supporting action from Trump allies. Trump’s May 2026 physical exam reported excellent cardiac, neurological, and cognitive results, reinforcing perceptions of fitness. While a sudden incapacitating health event or dramatic erosion of Cabinet loyalty could theoretically alter the trajectory before 2027, current institutional and partisan dynamics sustain the overwhelming trader consensus against removal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Volume
$49,857Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trump’s second term has featured strong alignment between the president, Vice President JD Vance, and a Republican Cabinet, creating a high procedural barrier under Section 4 of the 25th Amendment. Invocation requires the vice president plus a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds majorities in both chambers of a GOP-controlled Congress—an outcome viewed by traders as politically unrealistic absent broad Republican defections. Democratic calls for removal during the 2026 Iran conflict produced only non-binding resolutions and a failed commission bill, with no supporting action from Trump allies. Trump’s May 2026 physical exam reported excellent cardiac, neurological, and cognitive results, reinforcing perceptions of fitness. While a sudden incapacitating health event or dramatic erosion of Cabinet loyalty could theoretically alter the trajectory before 2027, current institutional and partisan dynamics sustain the overwhelming trader consensus against removal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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