Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 92.5% for President Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027, driven by Section 4’s stringent requirements: Vice President Vance and a majority of cabinet secretaries—Trump appointees—must declare him unable to discharge duties, a politically improbable step absent clear incapacity. Mid-April developments, including Rep. Jamie Raskin’s bill backed by over 50 House Democrats to create a presidential fitness commission amid Trump’s Iran war threats and reported briefing outbursts, generated brief speculation but stalled in the Republican-controlled Congress. No subsequent medical events, cabinet defections, or official actions have emerged in the past four weeks to shift dynamics, underscoring enduring institutional barriers. Late-breaking health crises or scandals could alter odds, though traders discount them.