Several 2026 Senate contests in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and New Hampshire show polling averages within or near a 5-point margin as of early September, driven by open seats, retirements, and an incumbent defending in a state with a Democratic lean. National midterm dynamics, including President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid inflation concerns, energy prices, and foreign policy developments, have tightened these races. Candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have further shaped competitiveness in these battlegrounds, with generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly while Republicans retain structural advantages in the overall map. Final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in voter turnout patterns could still alter margins before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$62,628 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
84%
Kansas
72%
Alaska
68%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (spéciale)
57%
Nebraska
52%
Maine
56%
New Hampshire
60%
South Carolina
40%
Géorgie
27%
Floride (spéciale)
25%
Minnesota
22%
Caroline du Nord
13%
Nouveau-Mexique
12%
Montana
9%
Virginie
4%
Colorado
4%
$62,628 Vol.
Texas
$7,129 Vol.
84%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
72%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
68%
Michigan
$2,735 Vol.
62%
Iowa
$5,645 Vol.
62%
Ohio (spéciale)
$3,936 Vol.
57%
Nebraska
$3,687 Vol.
52%
Maine
$1,020 Vol.
56%
New Hampshire
$2,352 Vol.
60%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
40%
Géorgie
$1,394 Vol.
27%
Floride (spéciale)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,715 Vol.
22%
Caroline du Nord
$5,584 Vol.
13%
Nouveau-Mexique
$6,665 Vol.
12%
Montana
$2,919 Vol.
9%
Virginie
$1,344 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and New Hampshire show polling averages within or near a 5-point margin as of early September, driven by open seats, retirements, and an incumbent defending in a state with a Democratic lean. National midterm dynamics, including President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid inflation concerns, energy prices, and foreign policy developments, have tightened these races. Candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have further shaped competitiveness in these battlegrounds, with generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly while Republicans retain structural advantages in the overall map. Final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in voter turnout patterns could still alter margins before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$62,628Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and New Hampshire show polling averages within or near a 5-point margin as of early September, driven by open seats, retirements, and an incumbent defending in a state with a Democratic lean. National midterm dynamics, including President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid inflation concerns, energy prices, and foreign policy developments, have tightened these races. Candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have further shaped competitiveness in these battlegrounds, with generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly while Republicans retain structural advantages in the overall map. Final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in voter turnout patterns could still alter margins before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,628Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and New Hampshire show polling averages within or near a 5-point margin as of early September, driven by open seats, retirements, and an incumbent defending in a state with a Democratic lean. National midterm dynamics, including President Trump's approval ratings near 40 percent amid inflation concerns, energy prices, and foreign policy developments, have tightened these races. Candidate recruitment and primary outcomes have further shaped competitiveness in these battlegrounds, with generic ballot trends favoring Democrats slightly while Republicans retain structural advantages in the overall map. Final weeks of campaigning and any shifts in voter turnout patterns could still alter margins before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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