Mary Peltola holds a first-choice lead of roughly 3.7 points over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate race after 96 percent of ballots are counted, with neither candidate reaching the 50 percent threshold required to avoid ranked-choice tabulation scheduled for November 18. Recent ballot drops from Southeast Alaska and Anchorage have widened her margin, while the minor candidacies of Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are expected to redistribute modestly in her favor under the state’s ranked-choice system. Traders price the final margin at 3-6 percent for Peltola because remaining questioned and overseas ballots plus second-preference flows appear likely to produce a comparable outcome upon certification around November 25. A stronger-than-anticipated Republican surge in uncounted ballots or atypical redistribution patterns could still narrow or reverse that range before final results are official.