Traders see four Democratic House seats in Minnesota as the leading outcome because the state’s current 4-4 split features four solidly Democratic districts in the Twin Cities metro area alongside four Republican-leaning rural and suburban seats, with limited crossover potential. Angie Craig’s retirement in the open Second District has drawn attention, yet forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others continue to rate it Likely Democratic, preserving the baseline. The remaining Democratic incumbents face minimal opposition risk, while Republican-held districts show consistent partisan advantages that have not shifted meaningfully in recent polling or candidate filings. A fifth seat would require an unexpected flip in one of the Republican districts, an outcome priced lower due to the absence of strong Democratic challengers or favorable national tailwinds at this stage. Resolution will follow the November 2026 general election results across the eight districts.