Recent Monetary Committee decisions and staff forecasts have kept the July 6 rate outcome closely contested, with inflation holding near the 2 percent midpoint of the 1–3 percent target range despite a modest uptick from global energy prices linked to regional tensions. Tight labor-market conditions, fiscal pressures, and trimmed 2026 growth projections have reinforced caution after consecutive holds, balancing the case for maintaining the current 4 percent benchmark against expectations for a gradual 25-basis-point easing later in the year. Incoming CPI releases, any shift in shekel stability, or clearer signals on geopolitical de-escalation could widen the gap between the leading no-change and decrease probabilities by clarifying whether inflation risks or subdued price pressures will guide the committee’s next move.