The Bank of Russia's September 11 hold at 14% after ten consecutive cuts has left December's outcome finely balanced between a 25 basis point reduction and no change, each priced near 33.5%. Recent inflation data show underlying price growth reaccelerating to 5–6% annualized amid temporary capacity constraints, higher fuel prices, and firmer lending, prompting the central bank to revise its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 6.0–7.0% while signaling a higher average rate path for the year. Fiscal policy is expected to be more expansionary than earlier baselines, limiting room for further easing and reinforcing caution. Traders weigh incoming inflation prints, inflation expectations, and any budget updates through year-end against the possibility that supply-side pressures fade enough to permit one modest cut at the final 2026 meeting.