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icon for CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre
Élections·MOV à Mi-parcours

CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre

icon for CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre
Élections·MOV à Mi-parcours

CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre

Républicain 15-20 % 41%

Républicain 25-30 % 39%

Victoire du démocrate 39%

Républicain 35 %+  38%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Républicain 15-20 % 41%

Républicain 25-30 % 39%

Victoire du démocrate 39%

Républicain 35 %+  38%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Républicain 35 %+

Républicain 35 %+

$0 Vol.

38%

icon for Républicain 30-35 %

Républicain 30-35 %

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Républicain 25-30 %

Républicain 25-30 %

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Républicain 20-25 %

Républicain 20-25 %

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Républicain 15-20 %

Républicain 15-20 %

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Républicain 10-15 %

Républicain 10-15 %

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Républicain 5-10 %

Républicain 5-10 %

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Républicain 0-5 %

Républicain 0-5 %

$0 Vol.

34%

icon for Victoire du démocrate

Victoire du démocrate

$10 Vol.

39%

The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in California's 5th Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the June primary where McClintock captured over 61% and Masuda about 24%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican based on its partisan composition, McClintock's prior margins, and fundraising edge. Trader consensus on specific victory margins remains balanced across buckets because the outcome hinges on turnout patterns, any late national political shifts, and limited new polling in a low-profile race. Historical results and structural factors limit volatility, though unexpected campaign developments or broader midterm dynamics could adjust probabilities before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock faces Democrat Michael Masuda in California's 5th Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the June primary where McClintock captured over 61% and Masuda about 24%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Republican based on its partisan composition, McClintock's prior margins, and fundraising edge. Trader consensus on specific victory margins remains balanced across buckets because the outcome hinges on turnout patterns, any late national political shifts, and limited new polling in a low-profile race. Historical results and structural factors limit volatility, though unexpected campaign developments or broader midterm dynamics could adjust probabilities before Election Day.

The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Un candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-06 de 2026 avec une avance de 0 % à 5 % ?

Un candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-06 de 2026 avec une avance de 0 % à 5 % ?

42%
Oui
icon for Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection de la Chambre CA-02 de 2026 avec 40 à 45 % des voix ?

Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection de la Chambre CA-02 de 2026 avec 40 à 45 % des voix ?

40%
Oui
icon for Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre CA-41 de 2026 avec une avance de 20 % à 25 % ?

Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre CA-41 de 2026 avec une avance de 20 % à 25 % ?

41%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Républicain 15-20 % » à 41%, suivi de « Républicain 25-30 % » à 39%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 41¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 2, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre » est « Républicain 15-20 % » à 41%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 41% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Républicain 25-30 % » à 39%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « CA-05 Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.