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icon for Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20
Politique·Élections à La Chambre

Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20

icon for Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20
Politique·Élections à La Chambre

Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20

Républicain 35-40 % 45%

Républicain 15-20 % 45%

Républicain 0-5 % 45%

Républicain 45 %+ 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Républicain 35-40 % 45%

Républicain 15-20 % 45%

Républicain 0-5 % 45%

Républicain 45 %+ 44%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU
icon for Républicain 45 %+

Républicain 45 %+

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Républicain 40-45 %

Républicain 40-45 %

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Républicain 35-40 %

Républicain 35-40 %

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Républicain 30-35 %

Républicain 30-35 %

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Républicain 25-30 %

Républicain 25-30 %

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Républicain 20-25 %

Républicain 20-25 %

$0 Vol.

43%

icon for Républicain 15-20 %

Républicain 15-20 %

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Républicain 5-15 %

Républicain 5-15 %

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Républicain 0-5 %

Républicain 0-5 %

$0 Vol.

45%

icon for Victoire du démocrate

Victoire du démocrate

$10 Vol.

43%

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Vince Fong faces Democrat Sandra Van Scotter in California's 20th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election, following Fong's decisive 68-29% primary win on June 2.** The solidly Republican district, covering parts of Kern, Tulare, Fresno, and Kings counties in the Central Valley, delivered Fong a 65% victory in 2024 and features a substantial Republican voter registration edge. Trader pricing on margin outcomes reflects this baseline advantage alongside the district's structural lean, with limited recent campaign developments or national shifts altering the outlook since the primary. Fundraising, turnout in agricultural areas, and any late-cycle messaging on water policy or economic conditions could influence the final spread, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest the race is unlikely to tighten dramatically absent major external catalysts.

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Republican Vince Fong faces Democrat Sandra Van Scotter in California's 20th congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election, following Fong's decisive 68-29% primary win on June 2.** The solidly Republican district, covering parts of Kern, Tulare, Fresno, and Kings counties in the Central Valley, delivered Fong a 65% victory in 2024 and features a substantial Republican voter registration edge. Trader pricing on margin outcomes reflects this baseline advantage alongside the district's structural lean, with limited recent campaign developments or national shifts altering the outlook since the primary. Fundraising, turnout in agricultural areas, and any late-cycle messaging on water policy or economic conditions could influence the final spread, though historical patterns in similar seats suggest the race is unlikely to tighten dramatically absent major external catalysts.

The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 CA-20 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-20 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-19 de 2026 avec une marge de 0 % à 10 % ?

Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-19 de 2026 avec une marge de 0 % à 10 % ?

43%
Oui
icon for Un candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-21 de 2026 avec une avance de 0 % à 5 % ?

Un candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-21 de 2026 avec une avance de 0 % à 5 % ?

46%
Oui
icon for Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre de la CA-10 en 2026 avec 40 à 45 % ?

Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre de la CA-10 en 2026 avec 40 à 45 % ?

43%
Oui

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Questions fréquentes

« Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 10 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Républicain 35-40 % » à 45%, suivi de « Républicain 15-20 % » à 45%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 45¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20 » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 2, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20 », parcourez les 10 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20 » est « Républicain 35-40 % » à 45%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 45% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Républicain 15-20 % » à 45%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Marge de victoire des élections à la Chambre CA-20 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.