Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 21st congressional district on November 3, creating the core dynamic behind evenly matched probabilities across margin-of-victory buckets. The Central Valley district's mix of urban and agricultural voters, combined with Costa's long incumbency and moderate positioning against Kirkland's challenge, sustains trader consensus around narrow outcomes for either party. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as leaning or likely Democratic, yet the absence of recent public polling or major campaign shifts leaves multiple margin scenarios with comparable implied probabilities. Late-cycle developments such as targeted advertising, turnout efforts in Fresno County, or national political currents could widen separation before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourRépublicain 0-5% 42%
Démocrate 25 % ou plus 40%
Démocrate 0-5 % 39%
Républicain 5 %+ 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate 25 % ou plus
40%
Démocrate 20-25 %
38%
Démocrate 15-20 %
38%
Démocrate 10-15 %
38%
Démocrate 5-10 %
38%
Démocrate 0-5 %
39%
Républicain 0-5%
42%
Républicain 5 %+
39%
Républicain 0-5% 42%
Démocrate 25 % ou plus 40%
Démocrate 0-5 % 39%
Républicain 5 %+ 39%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Démocrate 25 % ou plus
$0 Vol.
40%
Démocrate 20-25 %
$0 Vol.
38%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$0 Vol.
38%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$0 Vol.
38%
Démocrate 5-10 %
$0 Vol.
38%
Démocrate 0-5 %
$0 Vol.
39%
Républicain 0-5%
$0 Vol.
42%
Républicain 5 %+
$0 Vol.
39%
The 2026 CA-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 21st congressional district on November 3, creating the core dynamic behind evenly matched probabilities across margin-of-victory buckets. The Central Valley district's mix of urban and agricultural voters, combined with Costa's long incumbency and moderate positioning against Kirkland's challenge, sustains trader consensus around narrow outcomes for either party. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as leaning or likely Democratic, yet the absence of recent public polling or major campaign shifts leaves multiple margin scenarios with comparable implied probabilities. Late-cycle developments such as targeted advertising, turnout efforts in Fresno County, or national political currents could widen separation before election day.
The 2026 CA-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 21st congressional district on November 3, creating the core dynamic behind evenly matched probabilities across margin-of-victory buckets. The Central Valley district's mix of urban and agricultural voters, combined with Costa's long incumbency and moderate positioning against Kirkland's challenge, sustains trader consensus around narrow outcomes for either party. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as leaning or likely Democratic, yet the absence of recent public polling or major campaign shifts leaves multiple margin scenarios with comparable implied probabilities. Late-cycle developments such as targeted advertising, turnout efforts in Fresno County, or national political currents could widen separation before election day.
The 2026 CA-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa and Republican Kyle Kirkland advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 21st congressional district on November 3, creating the core dynamic behind evenly matched probabilities across margin-of-victory buckets. The Central Valley district's mix of urban and agricultural voters, combined with Costa's long incumbency and moderate positioning against Kirkland's challenge, sustains trader consensus around narrow outcomes for either party. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as leaning or likely Democratic, yet the absence of recent public polling or major campaign shifts leaves multiple margin scenarios with comparable implied probabilities. Late-cycle developments such as targeted advertising, turnout efforts in Fresno County, or national political currents could widen separation before election day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre CA-22 de 2026 avec une avance de 15 à 18 % ?
41%
Oui
Un candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-20 de 2026 avec 40 % à 45 % des voix ?
38%
Oui
Un candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre CA-06 de 2026 avec une avance de 5 % à 10 % ?
42%
Oui
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