Sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard and government vessel patrols, combined with notably reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in 2026, has kept cross-strait tensions below the threshold for direct military clash. Beijing’s emphasis on normalizing operations east of Taiwan and around outlying islands, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels including a planned Trump-Xi summit, aligns with assessments that full-scale conflict carries prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with integrated live-fire drills featuring drones and precision missiles, record defense budgeting, and littoral command enhancements, further raising the operational barriers to rapid escalation. These patterns support the market’s strong consensus against a clash before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$3,425,100 Vol.
$3,425,100 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$3,425,100 Vol.
$3,425,100 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard and government vessel patrols, combined with notably reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in 2026, has kept cross-strait tensions below the threshold for direct military clash. Beijing’s emphasis on normalizing operations east of Taiwan and around outlying islands, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels including a planned Trump-Xi summit, aligns with assessments that full-scale conflict carries prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with integrated live-fire drills featuring drones and precision missiles, record defense budgeting, and littoral command enhancements, further raising the operational barriers to rapid escalation. These patterns support the market’s strong consensus against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,425,100Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard and government vessel patrols, combined with notably reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in 2026, has kept cross-strait tensions below the threshold for direct military clash. Beijing’s emphasis on normalizing operations east of Taiwan and around outlying islands, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels including a planned Trump-Xi summit, aligns with assessments that full-scale conflict carries prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with integrated live-fire drills featuring drones and precision missiles, record defense budgeting, and littoral command enhancements, further raising the operational barriers to rapid escalation. These patterns support the market’s strong consensus against a clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,425,142Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard and government vessel patrols, combined with notably reduced PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ in 2026, has kept cross-strait tensions below the threshold for direct military clash. Beijing’s emphasis on normalizing operations east of Taiwan and around outlying islands, alongside ongoing diplomatic channels including a planned Trump-Xi summit, aligns with assessments that full-scale conflict carries prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with integrated live-fire drills featuring drones and precision missiles, record defense budgeting, and littoral command enhancements, further raising the operational barriers to rapid escalation. These patterns support the market’s strong consensus against a clash before 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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