The Cuban regime's entrenched institutional control, backed by security forces and repression of dissent, underpins trader expectations that it will not collapse in 2026 despite acute economic distress. Severe fuel shortages, prolonged blackouts exceeding 20 hours daily, and infrastructure failures have deepened hardship and driven mass emigration of 13-25% of the population since 2020, eroding potential for sustained internal protests. U.S. measures under the Trump administration, including tightened sanctions, fuel shipment interceptions, and statements framing Cuba as a failed state, have intensified pressure without triggering regime fracture, as private-sector adaptations and leadership continuity under Miguel Díaz-Canel sustain basic functions. Historical resilience, limited organized opposition, and a strategy of gradual economic leverage rather than direct intervention further support the 89.5% "No" consensus among traders.