The recent installation of the Jetten cabinet—a minority coalition of D66, VVD, and CDA holding 66 of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer—on 23 February 2026 after the October 2025 snap election underpins the 91.5% “No” consensus. Normal parliamentary terms run four years, with the next scheduled election by May 2030. No confidence crisis, coalition breakdown, or formal dissolution motion has emerged in the six months since formation, despite the government’s reliance on ad-hoc opposition support for legislation. Public polling in mid-August 2026 showed widespread voter skepticism about longevity, yet this has not translated into parliamentary action or procedural triggers capable of forcing an early vote before year-end. Traders price the short remaining window and structural incentives for stability as dominant factors keeping dissolution odds low.