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icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner

Finland 70%

Israel 14%

Greece 8%

Croatia 4.8%

Polymarket

$225,344 Vol.

Finland 70%

Israel 14%

Greece 8%

Croatia 4.8%

Polymarket

$225,344 Vol.

Finland

$33,709 Vol.

70%

Israel

$15,457 Vol.

14%

Greece

$23,706 Vol.

8%

Croatia

$23,238 Vol.

5%

Lithuania

$13,879 Vol.

4%

Moldova

$26,985 Vol.

2%

Poland

$15,427 Vol.

<1%

Sweden

$14,507 Vol.

<1%

Belgium

$7,799 Vol.

<1%

Serbia

$11,005 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland leads the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final market with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by strong pre-event momentum for its high-energy duet “Liekinheitin” and standout live delivery in Vienna. Bookmaker favorites aligned with public and jury voting patterns that historically reward polished pop-rock entries from Nordic acts. Israel sits in second on the strength of its polished ballad and consistent staging, while Greece benefits from vocal power and cultural appeal among voters. Recent semi-final results locked in qualifiers including Croatia and Moldova, yet Finland’s commanding points haul kept its implied probability elevated ahead of the grand final. Traders are watching for any post-show narrative shifts before Saturday’s vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$225,344
Date de fin
12 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland leads the Eurovision 2026 first semi-final market with overwhelming trader consensus, driven by strong pre-event momentum for its high-energy duet “Liekinheitin” and standout live delivery in Vienna. Bookmaker favorites aligned with public and jury voting patterns that historically reward polished pop-rock entries from Nordic acts. Israel sits in second on the strength of its polished ballad and consistent staging, while Greece benefits from vocal power and cultural appeal among voters. Recent semi-final results locked in qualifiers including Croatia and Moldova, yet Finland’s commanding points haul kept its implied probability elevated ahead of the grand final. Traders are watching for any post-show narrative shifts before Saturday’s vote.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$225,344
Date de fin
12 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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Questions fréquentes

« Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 15 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Finland » à 70%, suivi de « Israel » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 70¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner » a généré $225.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 7, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner », parcourez les 15 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner » est « Finland » à 70%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 70% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Israel » à 14%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.