Recent court proceedings in Bolivia have driven trader positioning around Evo Morales, as a Tarija judge on May 11 declared the former president in contempt for failing to appear at the opening of his aggravated human trafficking trial and reissued an arrest warrant along with a travel ban. Morales remains in his Chapare coca-growing stronghold under the protection of organized supporters who have signaled willingness to resist enforcement, while the suspended trial awaits either his voluntary appearance or capture. This creates closely balanced probabilities, with enforcement challenges rooted in the region’s loyalty networks, ongoing factional tensions within the Movement for Socialism, and the government’s caution over potential unrest. Key upcoming developments that could shift odds include any reported police operations in the next two weeks, statements from the current administration on execution priorities, or further legal maneuvers by Morales’s defense team.