Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucun changement 94%
Hausse de 25 points de base 4.0%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.1%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$5,596,953 Vol.
$5,596,953 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
2%
Aucun changement
94%
Hausse de 25 points de base
4%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
Aucun changement 94%
Hausse de 25 points de base 4.0%
Baisse de 25 points de base 2.1%
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$5,596,953 Vol.
$5,596,953 Vol.
29 juil. 2026
Diminution de plus de 50 points de base
$550,853 Vol.
1%
Baisse de 25 points de base
$425,006 Vol.
2%
Aucun changement
$663,120 Vol.
94%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$3,407,828 Vol.
4%
Augmentation de plus de 50 points de base
$550,146 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,596,953Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,596,953Date de fin
29 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus around no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 93.5% implied probability reflecting a firm labor market and persistent inflation pressures. April's hotter-than-expected CPI print and 115,000 nonfarm payrolls gain—pushing unemployment to a steady 4.3%—have kept the federal funds rate range at 3.5%-3.75% attractive for policymakers, while elevated oil prices from Middle East developments add upside risks to inflation without derailing growth. This positioning aligns with the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence and a neutral stance, as futures markets similarly price out near-term easing. The next May CPI release and June FOMC meeting remain key swing factors that could alter the rate path if inflation moderates sharply or employment weakens.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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