Florida's 19th congressional district is an open seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, with the August 18 Republican primary featuring a competitive field including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, and Jim Oberweis. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as solid or safe Republican on the new district map, reflecting the area's established partisan lean. Trader probabilities remain closely balanced across Republican margin-of-victory buckets and a Democrat win because the primary outcome, nominee strength, voter turnout, and broader midterm dynamics have not yet produced clear separation in expected general-election results. The Democratic primary among Victor Arias, Robert Neeld, and Howard Sapp adds further uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest. Developments such as primary results, subsequent general-election polling, fundraising reports, or national political shifts could quickly alter implied probabilities for specific margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFL-19 Marge de victoire pour les élections à la Chambre
FL-19 Marge de victoire pour les élections à la Chambre
Républicain 35 %+ 37%
Républicain 0-5 % 37%
Républicain 10-15 % 37%
Républicain 5-10 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 35 %+
37%
Républicain 30-35 %
36%
Républicain 25-30 %
36%
Républicain 20-25 %
36%
Républicain 15-20 %
36%
Républicain 10-15 %
37%
Républicain 5-10 %
37%
Républicain 0-5 %
37%
Victoire du démocrate
37%
Républicain 35 %+ 37%
Républicain 0-5 % 37%
Républicain 10-15 % 37%
Républicain 5-10 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 35 %+
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 30-35 %
$0 Vol.
36%
Républicain 25-30 %
$0 Vol.
36%
Républicain 20-25 %
$0 Vol.
36%
Républicain 15-20 %
$0 Vol.
36%
Républicain 10-15 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 5-10 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Républicain 0-5 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Victoire du démocrate
$0 Vol.
37%
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 19th congressional district is an open seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, with the August 18 Republican primary featuring a competitive field including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, and Jim Oberweis. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as solid or safe Republican on the new district map, reflecting the area's established partisan lean. Trader probabilities remain closely balanced across Republican margin-of-victory buckets and a Democrat win because the primary outcome, nominee strength, voter turnout, and broader midterm dynamics have not yet produced clear separation in expected general-election results. The Democratic primary among Victor Arias, Robert Neeld, and Howard Sapp adds further uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest. Developments such as primary results, subsequent general-election polling, fundraising reports, or national political shifts could quickly alter implied probabilities for specific margins.
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida's 19th congressional district is an open seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, with the August 18 Republican primary featuring a competitive field including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, and Jim Oberweis. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as solid or safe Republican on the new district map, reflecting the area's established partisan lean. Trader probabilities remain closely balanced across Republican margin-of-victory buckets and a Democrat win because the primary outcome, nominee strength, voter turnout, and broader midterm dynamics have not yet produced clear separation in expected general-election results. The Democratic primary among Victor Arias, Robert Neeld, and Howard Sapp adds further uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest. Developments such as primary results, subsequent general-election polling, fundraising reports, or national political shifts could quickly alter implied probabilities for specific margins.
The 2026 FL-19 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-19 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 19th congressional district is an open seat following incumbent Byron Donalds' retirement to pursue the governorship, with the August 18 Republican primary featuring a competitive field including Jim Schwartzel, Catalina Lauf, and Jim Oberweis. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as solid or safe Republican on the new district map, reflecting the area's established partisan lean. Trader probabilities remain closely balanced across Republican margin-of-victory buckets and a Democrat win because the primary outcome, nominee strength, voter turnout, and broader midterm dynamics have not yet produced clear separation in expected general-election results. The Democratic primary among Victor Arias, Robert Neeld, and Howard Sapp adds further uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest. Developments such as primary results, subsequent general-election polling, fundraising reports, or national political shifts could quickly alter implied probabilities for specific margins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection de 2026 pour la circonscription FL-20 à la Chambre avec 60 % ou plus ?
38%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre FL-18 en 2026 avec 30 % d'avance ou plus ?
37%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-01 House election by 0%-5%?
37%
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