Recent redistricting transformed Florida’s 25th Congressional District into a coastal seat spanning Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, where Donald Trump carried the new lines by nine points in 2024. Despite the Republican tilt, independent forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the contest from toss-up to lean Democratic in mid-October, citing incumbent Jared Moskowitz’s name recognition and fundraising edge. Conflicting internal polls—showing Scott Singer ahead by seven points in one GOP survey and Moskowitz up by five in a Democratic one—have not altered the broader assessment. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s cancellation of six million dollars in late ads, followed by targeted spending from a Trump-aligned super PAC, further signals a competitive but narrowing Republican path as early voting proceeds ahead of the November 3 election.