Trader consensus has locked onto 16°C as the verified daily maximum for Buenos Aires on October 12, driven by official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional surface observations that closed the market. This outcome matches the precise measurement protocols used for resolution, including standard thermometer readings at established stations, and leaves virtually no probability mass for higher values. Mid-spring climatology in the region typically features October maxima near 20°C, yet persistent cloud cover, southerly advection, and lower-than-average insolation produced the cooler result. Any revision would require documented instrument error or station relocation, scenarios unsupported by current agency data and unlikely to shift the implied probability away from near-certainty.