**Market-implied probabilities favor 25°C or 26°C as Busan’s highest temperature on October 17, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus for daytime maxima in that narrow band.** Recent model runs project partly cloudy conditions with moderate easterly to northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating while stable high pressure suppresses significant cooling or rain. Current observations show a gradual warming trend through mid-October, with recent highs near 21–22°C aligning with the expected climb. Historical climatology places typical October maxima around 22–24°C, so the slight positive anomaly supports the leading outcomes. Traders watch the next Korea Meteorological Administration updates and refined model cycles for any adjustments in the short 48-hour window before resolution.