**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on June 30?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 30?
37°C 51%
36°C 35%
38°C 13%
35°C 3.9%
NOUVEAU
$15,421 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,421 Vol.
30 juin 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C
4%
36°C
35%
37°C
51%
38°C
13%
39°C
2%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
37°C 51%
36°C 35%
38°C 13%
35°C 3.9%
NOUVEAU
$15,421 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$15,421 Vol.
30 juin 2026
31°C or below
$985 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$518 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$564 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$611 Vol.
1%
35°C
$940 Vol.
4%
36°C
$1,332 Vol.
35%
37°C
$7,969 Vol.
51%
38°C
$1,015 Vol.
13%
39°C
$808 Vol.
2%
40°C
$619 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$544 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,421Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,421Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 28, 2026, 1:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent high-pressure dominance and warm advection from subtropical air masses underpin the tight clustering around 36–37°C for Madrid’s June 30 maximum.** Official guidance from AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate continued clear skies and strong daytime insolation through the end of the month, following an intense late-June heatwave that produced several days above 38°C. Subtle model spread in boundary-layer mixing and the precise strength of the Iberian high creates the near-even split between 36°C (41.5%) and 37°C (40.0%), with lower probabilities for 35°C or 38°C reflecting uncertainty in whether modest Atlantic moisture or slight wind shifts will cap the peak. Historical June climatology for Retiro station shows typical maxima near 31–32°C, so current conditions represent a clear positive anomaly driven by the amplified ridge. Traders are weighting the latest 48-hour model runs and AEMET updates most heavily ahead of the final 24-hour verification window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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