Recent model runs and official outlooks from agencies like Mexico’s SMN indicate persistent cloud cover, showers, and moderate humidity will cap daytime heating in the Valley of Mexico on October 10, keeping the highest temperature most likely between 20–23 °C. This aligns with the market’s concentration of probability in the 22–24 °C range and reflects the influence of an active early-autumn pattern that has produced above-average rainfall and reduced insolation over the past week. Historical October highs average near 22–24 °C, providing a baseline, yet the current wet regime introduces downward pressure while still allowing brief clearing to push readings toward 24 °C or higher. Updated forecast guidance and satellite observations over the next 48 hours will be the key variables for traders monitoring resolution thresholds.