**Official observations from the National Weather Service Miami office recorded a daily maximum of 91°F on October 10, 2026, at 12:29 PM local time—4°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 87°F.** This places the high squarely in the 90–91°F bin, which traders have priced at 100% implied probability, with all other ranges at 0.1%. The minimum that day was 82°F, yielding an average of 87°F under partly cloudy conditions with no significant precipitation. This outcome aligns with late-summer warmth persisting into mid-October in South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures remain elevated and support higher daytime readings when daytime heating is strong. Historical data for the date show a record high of 94°F (1941) and multiple 91–92°F occurrences, so 91°F falls comfortably within the observed range without approaching extremes. The market consensus reflects the authoritative NWS measurement, which serves as the likely resolution source. Only a significant revision to the official climate summary or use of an alternate station with a meaningfully different reading could shift the outcome, though such adjustments are rare after preliminary data are confirmed.