Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Munich le 4 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Munich le 4 août ?
35°C 39%
36°C 28%
34°C 18%
37°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
3%
34°C
18%
35°C
39%
36°C
28%
37°C
15%
38°C
3%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
2%
35°C 39%
36°C 28%
34°C 18%
37°C 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
30°C or below
$398 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
1%
32°C
$42 Vol.
4%
33°C
$41 Vol.
3%
34°C
$113 Vol.
18%
35°C
$310 Vol.
39%
36°C
$124 Vol.
28%
37°C
$60 Vol.
15%
38°C
$41 Vol.
3%
39°C
$32 Vol.
2%
40°C or higher
$15 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,186Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,186Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Germany's DWD indicate a high-pressure ridge bringing warm southerly flow to southern Bavaria, positioning Munich's August 4 maximum near 34–36 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in afternoon cloud development, boundary-layer mixing depth, and the precise timing of peak insolation under light winds, with some runs favoring brief convective cooling that caps readings at 34 °C while others sustain clearer conditions for 36 °C. These factors explain the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the leading outcomes, as traders weigh the latest high-resolution model consensus and historical analogs for early-August heat episodes in the region against the inherent uncertainty range typical of 48-hour temperature predictions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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