Forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate a maximum temperature near 19–21°C in Warsaw on October 4 under increasing cloud cover and light westerly flow, limiting daytime heating compared to the prior day's clearer conditions near 21°C. This aligns with the market's heaviest weighting on 20°C (44%) and 21°C (30.5%), reflecting model consensus around mild autumn air masses and typical October variability. Recent observations show no strong frontal systems or rapid advection of warmer or cooler air, keeping probabilities for extremes below 1%. Updated model guidance and official IMGW or ECMWF briefings on October 4 will determine final resolution, with cloud thickness and wind shifts as key variables that could shift the peak by 1–2°C.