Wellington's mid-winter maximum temperatures on July 24 are shaped primarily by transient high-pressure ridges and southerly flow patterns typical of New Zealand's winter, with NIWA's seasonal outlook indicating near-average conditions (around 12°C mean high) and limited warm advection expected. Current model consensus and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather project daily highs between 10–14°C, positioning 13–14°C as the most probable range given recent stable atmospheric setups and minimal frontal activity in the Tasman Sea. Trader sentiment reflected in the market-implied odds favors these outcomes because they align closely with climatological baselines and short-range ensemble guidance, while lower probabilities for 15°C or above reflect the low likelihood of significant warming anomalies this far south in July. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Wellington le 24 juillet ?
Température la plus élevée à Wellington le 24 juillet ?
14°C 60%
13°C 29.8%
15°C 10%
12°C 1.1%
NOUVEAU
$34,225 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$34,225 Vol.
24 juil. 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
30%
14°C
60%
15°C
10%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 60%
13°C 29.8%
15°C 10%
12°C 1.1%
NOUVEAU
$34,225 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$34,225 Vol.
24 juil. 2026
8°C or below
$371 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$371 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$2,349 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$3,155 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3,493 Vol.
1%
13°C
$4,610 Vol.
30%
14°C
$8,670 Vol.
60%
15°C
$6,422 Vol.
10%
16°C
$1,988 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,991 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,003 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's mid-winter maximum temperatures on July 24 are shaped primarily by transient high-pressure ridges and southerly flow patterns typical of New Zealand's winter, with NIWA's seasonal outlook indicating near-average conditions (around 12°C mean high) and limited warm advection expected. Current model consensus and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather project daily highs between 10–14°C, positioning 13–14°C as the most probable range given recent stable atmospheric setups and minimal frontal activity in the Tasman Sea. Trader sentiment reflected in the market-implied odds favors these outcomes because they align closely with climatological baselines and short-range ensemble guidance, while lower probabilities for 15°C or above reflect the low likelihood of significant warming anomalies this far south in July. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$34,225Date de fin
24 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's mid-winter maximum temperatures on July 24 are shaped primarily by transient high-pressure ridges and southerly flow patterns typical of New Zealand's winter, with NIWA's seasonal outlook indicating near-average conditions (around 12°C mean high) and limited warm advection expected. Current model consensus and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather project daily highs between 10–14°C, positioning 13–14°C as the most probable range given recent stable atmospheric setups and minimal frontal activity in the Tasman Sea. Trader sentiment reflected in the market-implied odds favors these outcomes because they align closely with climatological baselines and short-range ensemble guidance, while lower probabilities for 15°C or above reflect the low likelihood of significant warming anomalies this far south in July. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,225Date de fin
24 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 22, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's mid-winter maximum temperatures on July 24 are shaped primarily by transient high-pressure ridges and southerly flow patterns typical of New Zealand's winter, with NIWA's seasonal outlook indicating near-average conditions (around 12°C mean high) and limited warm advection expected. Current model consensus and extended forecasts from sources like AccuWeather project daily highs between 10–14°C, positioning 13–14°C as the most probable range given recent stable atmospheric setups and minimal frontal activity in the Tasman Sea. Trader sentiment reflected in the market-implied odds favors these outcomes because they align closely with climatological baselines and short-range ensemble guidance, while lower probabilities for 15°C or above reflect the low likelihood of significant warming anomalies this far south in July. Updated model runs and MetService briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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