Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.3 percent in April 2026 after a gradual climb from 2025 lows, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month amid shrinking labor force participation. This softening reflects slower hiring, reduced immigration, and federal workforce cuts, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, keeping the federal funds rate steady near 3.5–3.75 percent. Forecasters project the rate could peak around 4.5–4.8 percent for the year as GDP growth moderates to roughly 1.8–2.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, June FOMC projections, and any shifts in monetary policy that could either cushion or accelerate labor market cooling.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$388,693 Vol.
10 janv. 2026
5,0 %
28%
5,5 %
14%
6,0 %
13%
7,0 %
10%
10,0 %
5%
$388,693 Vol.
5,0 %
$102,277 Vol.
28%
5,5 %
$186,719 Vol.
14%
6,0 %
$52,180 Vol.
13%
7,0 %
$21,511 Vol.
10%
10,0 %
$26,006 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.3 percent in April 2026 after a gradual climb from 2025 lows, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month amid shrinking labor force participation. This softening reflects slower hiring, reduced immigration, and federal workforce cuts, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, keeping the federal funds rate steady near 3.5–3.75 percent. Forecasters project the rate could peak around 4.5–4.8 percent for the year as GDP growth moderates to roughly 1.8–2.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, June FOMC projections, and any shifts in monetary policy that could either cushion or accelerate labor market cooling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$388,693Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.3 percent in April 2026 after a gradual climb from 2025 lows, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month amid shrinking labor force participation. This softening reflects slower hiring, reduced immigration, and federal workforce cuts, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, keeping the federal funds rate steady near 3.5–3.75 percent. Forecasters project the rate could peak around 4.5–4.8 percent for the year as GDP growth moderates to roughly 1.8–2.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, June FOMC projections, and any shifts in monetary policy that could either cushion or accelerate labor market cooling.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$388,693Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data show the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.3 percent in April 2026 after a gradual climb from 2025 lows, with nonfarm payrolls adding just 115,000 jobs that month amid shrinking labor force participation. This softening reflects slower hiring, reduced immigration, and federal workforce cuts, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, keeping the federal funds rate steady near 3.5–3.75 percent. Forecasters project the rate could peak around 4.5–4.8 percent for the year as GDP growth moderates to roughly 1.8–2.5 percent. Key upcoming catalysts include the May employment report, June FOMC projections, and any shifts in monetary policy that could either cushion or accelerate labor market cooling.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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