Current ICE removal operations place the 2026 total on a trajectory of roughly 430,000–460,000 formal deportations, driven by daily averages of 1,200–1,300 removals amid expanded detention capacity and record interior arrests. This pace, sustained through mid-2026, aligns closely with the 400-500k range that dominates trader consensus at 59.5 percent. Earlier-year enforcement ramps produced lower annualized figures, while administration targets of one million have not materialized due to logistical, legal, and resource constraints. Recent monthly data through July show continued steady output without sharp acceleration or deceleration, supporting the 300-400k bin as the next most probable outcome at 17.5 percent and limiting higher bins to single-digit probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de personnes Trump déportera-t-il en 2026 ?
Combien de personnes Trump déportera-t-il en 2026 ?
400 à 500 000 64%
300-400k 18%
500 à 600 000 9.3%
>1 million 3.2%
$122,674 Vol.
$122,674 Vol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
18%
400 à 500 000
60%
500 à 600 000
9%
600 000-700 000
2%
700-800 000
1%
800 à 900 000
2%
900 000 à 1 million
1%
>1 million
3%
400 à 500 000 64%
300-400k 18%
500 à 600 000 9.3%
>1 million 3.2%
$122,674 Vol.
$122,674 Vol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
18%
400 à 500 000
60%
500 à 600 000
9%
600 000-700 000
2%
700-800 000
1%
800 à 900 000
2%
900 000 à 1 million
1%
>1 million
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current ICE removal operations place the 2026 total on a trajectory of roughly 430,000–460,000 formal deportations, driven by daily averages of 1,200–1,300 removals amid expanded detention capacity and record interior arrests. This pace, sustained through mid-2026, aligns closely with the 400-500k range that dominates trader consensus at 59.5 percent. Earlier-year enforcement ramps produced lower annualized figures, while administration targets of one million have not materialized due to logistical, legal, and resource constraints. Recent monthly data through July show continued steady output without sharp acceleration or deceleration, supporting the 300-400k bin as the next most probable outcome at 17.5 percent and limiting higher bins to single-digit probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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