**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal removals for calendar year 2026, reflecting the current pace of ICE enforcement under the Trump administration.** Arrests reached record levels in summer 2026, exceeding 50,000 per month in July and August, yet deportations have held steady near 1,200 per day. Fiscal year 2026 data through July showed roughly 356,000 removals, exceeding the prior fiscal year's total and approaching historical peaks. Logistical constraints, including detention capacity, flight availability, and diplomatic arrangements with receiving countries, have prevented deportations from scaling proportionally with arrests. The administration has emphasized interior enforcement and prioritized cases involving criminal convictions, though recent arrest data show a broader mix. Self-deportations and voluntary departures are tracked separately by DHS and not included in official removal counts that typically resolve these markets. With roughly 3.5 months remaining in the calendar year, sustained operations at current levels point to an annual total in the 400-500k range, consistent with the leading bracket.