Trader consensus on 2026 deportations clusters tightly around 300,000–500,000 because ICE removal operations have sustained a pace similar to the 443,000 recorded in fiscal 2025 while facing persistent logistical and legal constraints. Recent administration statements in early May 2026 reaffirmed targets for expanded interior enforcement and voluntary departures, yet arrest rates have stabilized near 1,000 daily without the surge needed to approach one million annually. Court backlogs, limited detention capacity, and coordination with local jurisdictions continue to moderate throughput, while scheduled midterms and ongoing litigation introduce uncertainty over whether enforcement will accelerate or plateau in the second half of the year. These factors keep the two leading outcome brackets nearly even in trader assessments.