**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and repeated attacks on merchant vessels have kept visible transits through the Strait of Hormuz at depressed levels, supporting market-implied odds that cluster around the 20-29 range for the week of September 28.** Traders price in continued low AIS-detectable commodity vessel crossings, with recent Kpler and Lloyd’s List data showing daily visible counts often in the single digits to mid-teens and 10-day averages near 15-18, far below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100-125 large commercial ships per day. Many tankers now operate dark or via ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah and Sohar, sustaining crude flows near 10-13 million barrels daily while suppressing observable traffic. Key swing factors include any escalation in strikes, shifts in U.S. naval posture, or Iranian transit restrictions that could further suppress or briefly lift visible counts before the week resolves.