Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker seeks a third term against Republican nominee Darren Bailey in the November 2026 rematch, with primaries concluded in March and limited subsequent polling movement. Illinois's consistent Democratic lean, Pritzker's fundraising and name recognition advantages, and the state's partisan voting patterns in recent cycles keep Republican victory odds low while distributing probability across Democratic margin brackets from 5-10% through 30%+. An independent candidate's ballot access challenge adds minor uncertainty but has not shifted core positioning. Traders price the race as stable, with any tightening or separation likely tied to fall campaign dynamics, economic indicators, or turnout in key suburban and downstate areas.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 5-10 % 47%
Démocrate 20-25% 44%
Démocrate 10-15 % 37%
Démocrate 25-30 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Victoire républicaine
8%
Démocrate 0-5 %
34%
Démocrate 5-10 %
47%
Démocrate 10-15 %
37%
Démocrate 15-20 %
37%
Démocrate 20-25%
44%
Démocrate 25-30 %
37%
Démocrate 30%+
42%
Démocrate 5-10 % 47%
Démocrate 20-25% 44%
Démocrate 10-15 % 37%
Démocrate 25-30 % 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Victoire républicaine
$227 Vol.
8%
Démocrate 0-5 %
$0 Vol.
34%
Démocrate 5-10 %
$0 Vol.
47%
Démocrate 10-15 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 15-20 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 20-25%
$0 Vol.
44%
Démocrate 25-30 %
$0 Vol.
37%
Démocrate 30%+
$51 Vol.
42%
The 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker seeks a third term against Republican nominee Darren Bailey in the November 2026 rematch, with primaries concluded in March and limited subsequent polling movement. Illinois's consistent Democratic lean, Pritzker's fundraising and name recognition advantages, and the state's partisan voting patterns in recent cycles keep Republican victory odds low while distributing probability across Democratic margin brackets from 5-10% through 30%+. An independent candidate's ballot access challenge adds minor uncertainty but has not shifted core positioning. Traders price the race as stable, with any tightening or separation likely tied to fall campaign dynamics, economic indicators, or turnout in key suburban and downstate areas.
The 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 5, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$278Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker seeks a third term against Republican nominee Darren Bailey in the November 2026 rematch, with primaries concluded in March and limited subsequent polling movement. Illinois's consistent Democratic lean, Pritzker's fundraising and name recognition advantages, and the state's partisan voting patterns in recent cycles keep Republican victory odds low while distributing probability across Democratic margin brackets from 5-10% through 30%+. An independent candidate's ballot access challenge adds minor uncertainty but has not shifted core positioning. Traders price the race as stable, with any tightening or separation likely tied to fall campaign dynamics, economic indicators, or turnout in key suburban and downstate areas.
The 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$278Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 5, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat JB Pritzker seeks a third term against Republican nominee Darren Bailey in the November 2026 rematch, with primaries concluded in March and limited subsequent polling movement. Illinois's consistent Democratic lean, Pritzker's fundraising and name recognition advantages, and the state's partisan voting patterns in recent cycles keep Republican victory odds low while distributing probability across Democratic margin brackets from 5-10% through 30%+. An independent candidate's ballot access challenge adds minor uncertainty but has not shifted core positioning. Traders price the race as stable, with any tightening or separation likely tied to fall campaign dynamics, economic indicators, or turnout in key suburban and downstate areas.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois Senate election by 25%-30%?
19%
Le candidat du Parti démocrate va-t-il gagner l'élection du gouverneur du Wisconsin en 2026 avec une avance de 9 à 12 % ?
47%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l’élection du gouverneur du Massachusetts en 2026 avec 25 à 30 % d’avance ?
46%
Oui
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