Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 on key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged or rendered inoperable major facilities, with assessments indicating setbacks ranging from months to years. Subsequent strikes into 2026 have targeted additional locations tied to nuclear and missile activities, while IAEA monitoring and seismic detection networks would identify any test detonation. Iran maintains its program serves civilian purposes and has conducted no prior nuclear tests. With limited time remaining before 2027 and ongoing international pressure through sanctions and diplomacy, traders assign high probability to no test occurring. Concealed reconstruction at hardened or undisclosed sites, or a rapid policy shift toward weaponization despite risks, represent low-probability pathways that could alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 on key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged or rendered inoperable major facilities, with assessments indicating setbacks ranging from months to years. Subsequent strikes into 2026 have targeted additional locations tied to nuclear and missile activities, while IAEA monitoring and seismic detection networks would identify any test detonation. Iran maintains its program serves civilian purposes and has conducted no prior nuclear tests. With limited time remaining before 2027 and ongoing international pressure through sanctions and diplomacy, traders assign high probability to no test occurring. Concealed reconstruction at hardened or undisclosed sites, or a rapid policy shift toward weaponization despite risks, represent low-probability pathways that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$246,407Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 on key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged or rendered inoperable major facilities, with assessments indicating setbacks ranging from months to years. Subsequent strikes into 2026 have targeted additional locations tied to nuclear and missile activities, while IAEA monitoring and seismic detection networks would identify any test detonation. Iran maintains its program serves civilian purposes and has conducted no prior nuclear tests. With limited time remaining before 2027 and ongoing international pressure through sanctions and diplomacy, traders assign high probability to no test occurring. Concealed reconstruction at hardened or undisclosed sites, or a rapid policy shift toward weaponization despite risks, represent low-probability pathways that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,407Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli and U.S. strikes in June 2025 on key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged or rendered inoperable major facilities, with assessments indicating setbacks ranging from months to years. Subsequent strikes into 2026 have targeted additional locations tied to nuclear and missile activities, while IAEA monitoring and seismic detection networks would identify any test detonation. Iran maintains its program serves civilian purposes and has conducted no prior nuclear tests. With limited time remaining before 2027 and ongoing international pressure through sanctions and diplomacy, traders assign high probability to no test occurring. Concealed reconstruction at hardened or undisclosed sites, or a rapid policy shift toward weaponization despite risks, represent low-probability pathways that could alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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