Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to intelligence assessments. US officials estimate that Iran would now require roughly nine to twelve months to produce a weapon if it decided to pursue one, with no resumption of uranium enrichment reported as of March 2026. IAEA inspections remain limited at affected locations, leaving the fate of stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material uncertain. Ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's public statements denying weaponization plans further support trader expectations that acquisition before the end of 2026 remains unlikely, though any shift in Tehran's intent or successful reconstruction efforts could alter that assessment.