Strong congressional and maritime industry opposition has blocked any legislative path to permanent Jones Act repeal or broad reform before year-end, keeping trader-implied odds on removal by December 31 at just 6%. Domestic shipping groups, unions, and key Republican lawmakers continue to defend the 1920 cabotage rules as essential for U.S. shipbuilding and national security, while recent Trump administration waivers—extended through November 15 with narrower scope and case-by-case reviews—remain temporary emergency measures tied to Middle East energy disruptions rather than structural change. No committee action, floor votes, or administration proposals for full statutory removal have advanced in the current session, and opposition has intensified in recent weeks against even the existing waivers. This environment leaves negligible time or political momentum for the required legislation ahead of the market deadline.