Current ensemble forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration show Beijing under high pressure with southerly flow on October 9, supporting daytime highs near 24–27°C and overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius through limited radiative cooling and minimal cloud cover. Trader sentiment remains split near 50% between 7°C or below and 17°C or higher because autumn frontal passages or brief northerly shifts can enhance mixing and drop minima several degrees, while persistent clear, calm conditions limit cooling. Historical October baselines place typical lows near 10–12°C, but recent warm anomalies and model spread on boundary-layer humidity and wind speed create the tight implied probabilities across the 8–16°C range. Updated model runs and surface observations in the next 48 hours will likely resolve the key variables.