**Forecast consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to overnight lows near 20°C in Chongqing on October 16, driven by persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling.** Recent model runs show daytime highs around 25–26°C with minima holding in the 20–21°C range amid humid conditions typical of the region's autumn transition. This setup explains the market's strong 57.5% implied probability on 20°C, with secondary support for 19°C and 21°C reflecting minor variations in shower timing or local microclimates. Historical October baselines average lows near 17°C, but current synoptic patterns favor milder readings. Updated NHC-equivalent guidance or late-model shifts could adjust odds ahead of resolution.