Current forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate Istanbul's overnight low on October 9 will likely settle in the mid-teens Celsius under predominantly clear skies and light southerly flow, with radiative cooling overnight setting the floor after daytime highs near 22°C. Key variables differentiating the tightly clustered market outcomes include surface humidity and dew point depression, which control how efficiently heat escapes, plus subtle variations in wind speed that could limit or enhance mixing. Ensemble spreads in guidance reflect typical autumnal uncertainty at this latitude, where small shifts in cloud cover or advection from the Sea of Marmara can alter the minimum by 1–3°C; traders appear to price the 14°C outcome highest due to its alignment with recent model consensus while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values pending final verification data.