Forecast models from sources including the Pakistan Meteorological Department and GFS indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds will drive Karachi’s October 16 minimum temperature. This positions the 21°C-or-below outcome at 47% implied probability as the market leader, reflecting trader emphasis on potential for stronger cooling than the 24–26°C consensus range shown in current runs. Recent post-monsoon conditions have produced daily lows near 25–27°C, aligning with seasonal baselines around 23°C, while model spread in dew-point and boundary-layer mixing creates uncertainty around exact thresholds. Updated agency guidance expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.