Forecast models from sources including WindBorne and multiple international services indicate an overnight low near 11°C for Mexico City on October 15, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and northeasterly flow that limit radiative cooling at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Overcast skies reduce the typical nocturnal temperature drop compared to clear conditions, while recent regional moisture from broader weather patterns keeps dew points elevated and moderates extremes. Historical October lows average around 12°C, but model consensus and current observations cluster between 11–13°C, creating tight market-implied odds near 14°C versus lower thresholds. Official resolution will depend on the precise minimum recorded at the primary monitoring station, with any shift in steering winds or clearing potentially altering the final value before dawn.