Persistent cloud cover and widespread rainfall driven by a mid-level cyclonic circulation and atmospheric instability over central Mexico are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Mexico City, supporting market-implied odds favoring a minimum temperature of 13–17°C on October 6. Official CONAGUA guidance and global model consensus project lows of 12–14°C amid continued showers and overcast skies, consistent with the elevated 48.5% implied probability on 18°C or higher while limiting downside risk to single-digit values. This pattern aligns with the typical October climatology of 11–12°C average lows but reflects short-term suppression of clear-night cooling; traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model updates for any steering changes that could alter cloud persistence before resolution.