Recent European heatwave conditions, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies over western France, have elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Paris well above the July climatological average of 15–17°C. Météo-France guidance for July 10 points to morning lows near 20–22°C under light winds and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around these values. Urban heat-island effects and measurement protocols at official stations further constrain downside risk, while any increase in cloud cover or a slight shift in steering flow could allow marginally lower readings. Updated model runs and the next official forecast briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLowest temperature in Paris on July 10?
20°C 52%
21°C 34%
22°C 8%
19°C 7%
$23,123 Vol.
$23,123 Vol.
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
7%
20°C
52%
21°C
34%
22°C
8%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 52%
21°C 34%
22°C 8%
19°C 7%
$23,123 Vol.
$23,123 Vol.
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
7%
20°C
52%
21°C
34%
22°C
8%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European heatwave conditions, driven by persistent high-pressure systems and clear skies over western France, have elevated overnight minimum temperatures in Paris well above the July climatological average of 15–17°C. Météo-France guidance for July 10 points to morning lows near 20–22°C under light winds and limited nocturnal cooling, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around these values. Urban heat-island effects and measurement protocols at official stations further constrain downside risk, while any increase in cloud cover or a slight shift in steering flow could allow marginally lower readings. Updated model runs and the next official forecast briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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